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18.05.2019 03:53
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Yeah Devin Mesoraco Jersey , Verlander. And Iíll prove it."WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Houston Astros NewsGame ThreadsHouston Astros Minor LeaguesAstros Game DayPodcastsReviewing Astros Trades, 2014-2018, Part VIII. The Greatest Trade of All Time.New,10commentsYeah, Verlander. And Iíll prove it.CDTShareTweetShareShareReviewing Astros Trades, 2014-2018, Part VIII. The Greatest Trade of All Time.Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY SportsIntroductionThis is part eight of a series analyzing Astros trades from 2014-2018. For a review of the methodology and caveats go to Part I here.This is a review of how the trades turned out, understanding that at the time the trades were made the teams involved used the best information available to maximize the chances of an advantageous transaction. But all trades are based on probabilities, and like any form of gambling, the actual outcomes may not be those desired. So this is not intended as a criticism of the trades at the time they happened, but just a review of how lady luck eventually blessed each trade in the end.The TradeAugust 31, 2017, 11:59:59 PMBreakdown:In the last second of the last minute of the last hour of the waiver trading deadline, OF Daz Cameron, P Franklin Perez and C Jake Rogers were sent to the Tigers for P Justin Verlander and PTBNL Juan Ramirez. The Tigers agreed to pay $8 million/year of the remaining two years of Verlanderís $28 million/year salary.At the time of the trade only Franklin Perez was considered a Top 100 prospect, although all three were highly prized by the Astros organization.What the Tigers got:With his overall athleticism Daz Cameron in high school was once considered a possible first pick overall. He was drafted by the Astros in the first round of the 2015 supplemental draft which came to the Astros as part of the trade that brought Jake Marisnick and Collin Moran from Miami for Jarred Cosart and Enrique Hernandez. At age 21 Cameron tasted AAA last year, and had an .837 OPS in AA.His ETA according to Fangraphs is 2020, and is the 107th prospect in MLB. His future value rating is 50. the perspective of the Astros. Hereís why.Any trade that wins a championship is a great trade. It doesnít matter if the Astros traded young Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb and Ted Williams, and thrown in Cy Young as the player to be named later, it is 100% certain that the Astros would not have won the World Series without Justin Verlander. Thatís what you play for, and if youíre a team like the Astros the chance for that ring comes very rarely. And yet, even when a team takes the chance and pulls the trigger on a trade like this, it seldom works. This time it did. Without Verlander they would have almost certainly lost to the Yankees in the ALCS in five games. Wins now are worth more than wins later. Especially if they are wins that advance a championship drive. The players the Astros surrendered may produce 13 wins for the Tigers someday, probably more, but maybe less. But when a team accepts prospects for a proven player they take risk, and with risk should come greater eventual reward. Considering the unexpected resurgence in Verlanderís performance on the Astros , the Tigers gave up more than they expected.They probably at least want their $8 million a year back.Three players worth2 wins each does not equal one player worth six wins. It is relatively easy to find and or replace a 2 WAR player. There were 45 pitchers with WAR between 1.8 and 2.8 last year. There were six with WAR greater than 6. Three 2018 Gio Gonzalezes does not equal one Justin Verlander. Give me Verlander and find two other just guys.Why This is the Greatest Trade of All TimeOne could find dozens of trades that yielded more wins than this one will. In the end, by that criterion, the Astros may actually end up the net loser.But this trade was not about winning regular season games. They had the division easily wrapped up. It was about winning playoff games, and winning a championship, the first in the teamís history. If your team loses the last game of the season, the other ones donít really matter. This was the greatest trade in history because never before did one trade alone make such a quick, total and decisive difference between a team not winning a championship and winning it. For no other trade could it be said more definitively that without the player added the team would not have won the championship, and with him it did. In a seven game ALCS, in which the losing team actually scored more runs, the Series MVP had a Win Probability Added of an astronomical .90. No conceivable replacement for Verlander could have come close to matching his performance, and without it the team never sniffs the World Series.A few trades are close contenders. 1.The 2000 trade of Curt Shilling to the Diamondbacks, but that took a year to yield the trophy2. The 2016 trade of Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs, but when Aroldis was called on to close out game seven he failed at the most decisive moment in the very thing he was acquired to do. The Cubs won that game despite their rented closer. The Cubs would have won the NLDS, the NLCS and the World Series without Chapman, the only decisive contribution he made being the Game 5 save in the World Series. His .23 WPA in the Series does not compare in importance to what Verlander did to get the Astros into the Series.Anyway, Verlander ate up over 34 playoff innings in 2017. Could you imagine what the score of those games would have been if the Astrosí playoff bullpen had to replace those?3.The 1998 trade of Pedro Martinez to the Red Sox was a steal, but it took six years for Martinez to put the Sox over the top.4. I donít count the Yankees purchase of Babe Ruth as a trade, but I was surprised to learn that it took three years for Ruth to yield a World Series victory for the Yankees, that he only won four total with the Bombers, and actually won three titles with the Red Sox.This one trade is the closest challenger for Greatest Trade of All Time.Frank RobinsonFrank Robinson, after a slightly down year, was traded by the Cincinnati Reds for pitcher Milt Pappas. Robinson had his greatest season, winning the Triple Crown, MVP, and hitting 1.047 OPS with 49 home runs. He produced 7.7 bWAR. Weíll round that up to eight.The Orioles were 97-63 that year, compared to a slightly over-achieving 94-68 the previous year. They finished third without Robinson, and finished first in the AL in 1966 with him Pedro Martinez Jersey , with the help of Brooks Robinson, Boog Powell, Dave McNally, and rookie JimPalmer. They beat out an illustrious Minnesota Twins team that included Tony Oliva, Harmon Killebrew, Jim Kaat, Jim Perry, and Mudcat Grant. There were no play-offs then.The Orioles finished nine games ahead of the Twins, and given that Robinson created eight wins by this very approximate measure called WAR, itís too close to call whether or not the Orioles would have won the AL pennant without Robinson. Nor can you quantify the effect a player of Robinsonís energy, enthusiasm and skill would have on the performances of the other players on the team, but by all accounts it was immense. Yet clearly Justin Verlander had that effect on his new team as well.I should mention that if the Orioles had kept Pappas he would have added 2.7 bWAR.The Orioles beat the LA Dodgers 4-0 in the World Series, taking down Hall of Famers Don Drysdale and Sandy Koufax.Robinson was MVP with an OPS of 1.232 and two home runs, one of which won game four, 1-0. His WPA was .27. (For comparison George Springerís WPA in the 2017 World Series was 1.04)The Orioles outscored the punchless Dodgers 13-2, so it seems that even if it had taken more games, the Orioles still would have beaten the Dodgers without Frank Robinson. But again, how does the absence of the team leader, the man you know brought you there, effect everyone elseís performance?Hereís a few scenes from this World SeriesItís a really hard call to say whether or not the 66 Orioles would have won the World Series without Frank Robinson.My gut says no, but the numbers are a little more fuzzy.Without Verlander the 2017 Astros do not win the ALCS or the WS,that is FOR SURE.So, by my definition that the greatest trade is the one that you canít win the World Series without, I say the Verlander trade still wins the title Greatest Trade of All Time.Note: If anyone knows a more decisive trade, explain in the comments. And yes, I know Frank Robinson was also instrumental in the Orioles 1971 World Series as well, with the help of four 20 game winners. Maybe Verlander will bring the Stros a second World Series too! Head over heart rent the Tribe and Gomer apart"Emotionally Max Kepler Jersey , trading Yan Gomes for a Double-A outfielder and a rookie reliever still doesnít track. Weíre talking about Gomer, member of the Goon Squad, All-Star catcher of the Cleveland Indians. His salary, guaranteed $7 million for 2019 and nothing else but a $1 million buyout, was too much?Through watery-eyes, the answer is no.Taking a Kleenex to those eyes, does this make more sense? Intellectually, was this the right deal for Gomes?Letís talk about Gomes. Heís 31 years old and will turn 32 during the next season. Heís not at the bottom, but he is on the wrong side of the aging curve. Though aging curves are averages, and outliers exist on either side of the line, few players stay well above the line after 30.Because of his fluky, injury-riddled 2015 and 2016 seasons, Gomesí wRC+ curve does not match the bell curve of average players. That said, those who truly beat the bell curve are Hall of Famers, and Yan Gomes has about 40 bWAR left to accumulate in his career (per JAWS) to reach that standard, and, uh, that ainít happening. Gomes posted his best wRC+ numbers in his age-25 season, at 128, which matches the average player, whose numbers start to decline from there. buyouts either year, making the maximum the Nats would pay $27 million) in exchange for $7 million of prospect value. Thatís pretty even, with the Indians assuming a decline in surplus value coming from Gomes over the last couple years of the deal and a surfeit of value from Johnson and Rodriguez over their cost-controlled (read: super duper cheap) seasons. On that basis, intellectually this deal makes sense. Does that mean itís a deal I would have made? *Dabs eyes with Kleenex again*No.

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